Modi Xi Meetings and Trump’s Role in India-China Relations

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Detailed analysis of Modi-Xi meetings, Trump’s role and key findings

The relationship between India and China is one of the most complex and important bilateral relations of the 21st century. This relationship is sometimes colored with cooperation and sometimes it comes out in the form of competition and confrontation. Also, the meetings between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping have emerged as a determining factor in this relationship. And the possibility of Donald Trump’s return to global politics has made this equation even more complex.

But both Modi and Xi are strong leaders who are proud of the cultural heritage of their respective countries and are keen to expand the role of their countries on the global stage. Also in this article, we will present an in-depth analysis of the historical political and strategic aspects of Modi-Xi meetings. Also, we will look at the possible return of former US President Donald Trump as a wild card in this equation and discuss the key points that can determine the direction of future India-China relations. And in the words of Modi, when I shake hands with a world leader.

Historical context of India-China relations

The history of relations between India and China has been a mix of cooperation and conflict. These two countries, which gave the slogan of Hindi-Chini Bhai-Bhai in the 1950s, came face to face on a battlefield in 1962. This war created a deep gulf of distrust between the two countries which persists till date. And the visit of the then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi to China in 1988 started the process of normalizing relations but fundamental issues like border dispute remained unresolved. But the situation of tension remains over patrolling activities on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and many times this tension turns into incidents like Galwan Valley.

At the same time, there has been a significant improvement in the relations between the two countries in the economic sector. But China has become India’s largest trading partner. But the trade balance is in favor of China, about which serious concerns have been expressed in India.

2014 First informal meeting in Fortledia

After Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister, his first meeting with Xi Jinping took place in September 2014 when Xi Jinping visited India. And during this time, the pictures of the conversation on the river bank near Sabarmati Ashram in Gujarat became very viral in the media. In this meeting, both the leaders agreed to increase economic cooperation and resolve the border dispute in a peaceful manner. But during this time, a glimpse of the border dispute was also seen when news of the intrusion of Chinese soldiers in Ladakh came. Also, 2015 official visit to China, which Modi made an official visit to China in May 2015.

During this, a ceremony was organized according to the traditional Chinese tradition of welcoming in Xi’an. And during this visit, 46 agreements were signed between the two countries, which included trade investment and cultural exchange. But no concrete progress could be made on the border dispute.

2017 Doklam standoff and subsequent situation

The Doklam standoff between India and China in 2017 created serious tension in relations. And this standoff lasted for 73 days and during this time both the countries reached the brink of war. However, during the BRICS summit held in Xiamen in September 2017, Modi and Xi discussed the issue and succeeded in reducing tensions. Also the 2018-2019 round of informal summits which during this period Modi and Xi held several informal summits including Wuhan (2018) Chennai (2019) and Mamallapuram. And the purpose of these meetings was to build personal chemistry and lay the foundation of mutual trust.

But during these meetings, the two leaders observed each other’s cultural heritage and had long private conversations. Also the 2020 Galwan Valley clash and its aftermath which was the violent clash in Galwan Valley in June 2020 in which 20 Indian soldiers and estimated Chinese soldiers were killed. This incident was the most serious incident on the border since 1975. After this incident, relations deteriorated significantly and India imposed several economic sanctions against China, including a ban on Chinese apps.

Economic and trade cooperation Modi Xi meetings

India-China economic relations have expanded significantly during the reign of Modi and Xi. China is India’s largest trading partner and trade between the two countries has reached billions of dollars. But the trade balance is in favor of China, about which India has been constantly expressing concern. India has taken several steps to reduce the trade deficit with China. These include increasing import duty on Chinese goods and banning Chinese investment. Also, a major objective of Modi’s Atmanirbhar Bharat policy is to reduce dependence on China. After the COVID-19 pandemic and the Galwan Valley conflict, India has tightened economic policies against China. Restrictions have been imposed on Chinese companies and Indian companies are being encouraged so that they can reduce dependence on China.

Security and strategic issues Modi Xi meetings

The border dispute remains the most controversial issue in India-China relations. And several rounds of talks have taken place between the two countries but no concrete solution has been found. But Modi and Xi have agreed on a peaceful solution to this issue but in practice the situation has not improved much. Also, India is trying to stop China from taking advantage of the situation. China has been opposing the China-Bridge Initiative (BRI), especially the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which violates India’s sovereignty as it passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. And India has strongly objected to this and called it a violation of international law.

Also regional and global cooperation India and China work together in regional organizations such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In these forums, both countries display a unique dialectics of cooperation and competition. While on the one hand these countries cooperate on global issues such as climate change and terrorism, on the other hand, there is also intense competition between them for regional dominance.

Trump’s China policy a review on Modi Xi meetings

During his first term, Trump imposed tough economic sanctions against China and blamed it for currency manipulation. Trump also accused China of hiding the COVID-19 epidemic and separated the US from the World Health Organization (WHO). And in case Trump becomes president again, there is a possibility of more tense phase in China-US relations. Also, Trump and India have a complex relationship. Indo-US relations saw ups and downs during Trump’s last tenure. On the one hand, Trump gave India the status of Major Defense Partner and strengthened QUAD, while on the other hand, he also made strong comments against India on trade issues. Trump had accused India of imposing significant tariffs and strongly condemned the digital tax imposed by India on American companies.

Border dispute a constant challenge

The border dispute remains the biggest hurdle in India-China relations. And despite all the meetings and talks so far, there has been no concrete progress on this issue. Incidents like Galwan Valley show that tensions on the border can create an explosive situation at any time. Also, there is little possibility of a solution to this issue in the future as both countries are driven by nationalist sentiments and do not seem to be in a mood to bow down to the public.

Also, the duality of economic interdependence, cooperation and competition which is the economic relationship between India and China is complex. And on the one hand, India is dependent on China for the import of many goods. On the other hand, China needs India’s market and human resources. But this interdependence is the basis of cooperation between the two countries as well as the reason for tension. In the future, it remains to be seen whether this interdependence can be converted into cooperation by both countries or whether it will take the form of economic war.

Global Geopolitics Towards a Multipolar World

Both India and China are strong advocates of a multipolar world where American dominance is reduced and multi-power centers emerge. Despite this common goal, there is deep competition between the two countries for regional dominance. India considers China an obstacle in its path to becoming the leader of Asia. But China considers India a stooge of America. And despite this competition, both countries have been cooperating on common interests on global forums.

Also, the role of leadership is Modi vs Xi, both Modi and Xi are powerful leaders who have strong public support in their respective countries. Both leaders are pushing forward a nationalist agenda and dream of making their countries a global superpower. The personal equation between the two leaders does not appear to be as strong as it is seen with other world leaders. But still both the leaders act pragmatically and are ready to cooperate in mutual interests.