An oil tanker carrying Russian crude to India, highlighting rising imports.
India Russian oil imports on the Trump-Putin chessboard: A detailed analysis
India’s foreign policy and energy security are facing an unprecedented challenge in the current geopolitical scenario. On one hand, there is the America First agenda of US President Donald Trump under which he wants to increase economic pressure on Russia and on the other hand, India is importing crude oil from Russia at concessional rates, taking advantage of the situation arising after the Russia-Ukraine war. This situation is trapping India in a delicate chicken game between the US and Russia where the tension between the two superpowers is directly affecting India. In this analysis, we will discuss in detail the future of Russian oil imports for India, the US pressure looming on it and India’s possible options.
India Russian oil imports: an emerging partnership
Before the Ukraine war, India’s oil imports from Russia were negligible. India was mainly dependent on the Middle East countries for its energy needs, which included Iraq, Saudi Arabia and UAE. However, after the war, when Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia, Russia started selling its oil at cheaper rates. India took advantage of this opportunity and started buying oil from Russia in large quantities to strengthen its energy security and reduce the import bill. Statistics By March 2025, Russia had become India’s largest oil supplier, surpassing Iraq, Saudi Arabia and UAE.
In June 2025, India imported 2.08 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil from Russia, which was the highest level in the last 11 months. In the financial year 2024-25, about 35-40% of India’s total oil imports came from Russia, whereas in 2018 it was only 1.3%. This increased purchase proved to be strategically important for India. It not only protected India from volatility in oil prices in the global market but also helped in controlling inflation in the country and reducing the import bill of the government. The Indian government named it Oil Defiance Strategy which means that India faced the volatility of the global oil market by giving priority to its national interests.
Trump’s pressure and impact on India Russian oil imports
The Trump administration has expressed its objection to India buying oil from Russia. They believe that India is indirectly helping Russia in its war efforts by buying oil from it. Due to this, Trump has decided to impose heavy tariffs on India. Trump’s moves Sword of tariff Trump has imposed an additional duty of 25% on exports from India to America, taking the total tariff on Indian goods to 50%. This tariff is a big blow to India because America is a major market for Indian exports. Political rhetoric Trump and his allies have intensified their rhetoric against India, which is increasing tension in the relations between the two countries.
America’s double standards India has called this move of America unfair and absurd, saying that America and its allies are also continuing to trade some important goods (such as uranium and palladium) with Russia. India argues that when Europe itself is buying huge quantities of gas and LNG from Russia, it is wrong to target only India.
This pressure has also had a deep impact on India’s domestic politics. The opposition, media and public have appealed to the government not to bow down to Trump’s threats. The government has also indicated that it will not give in to the US’s threat. Will not compromise on its national interests.
Options and challenges before India
After the pressure of the Trump administration, India has many options but every option has its own challenges.
Continue oil imports from Russia
Benefits Availability of cheap oil Energy security and control over inflation. This will also strengthen India’s strategic partnership with Russia which is decades old Challenges Further deterioration in relations with the US and tariffs imposed by the US Heavy losses to Indian exporters. This can also threaten the relationship built with 25 years of hard work between India and the US.
Reduce or stop oil imports from Russia
Benefits Tensions with the US will reduce and trade relations can improve Removal of tariffs will provide relief to Indian exporters Challenges If the supply of cheap oil from Russia stops, India will have to buy oil from the international market at higher prices. This will increase the prices of petrol and diesel in the country, which will increase inflation and pressure on the general public. According to global analysis firm Kpler, if India stops importing Russian oil, crude oil prices in the international market can reach $200 per barrel.
Search for new suppliers
Possible options African and Latin American countries like Venezuela The US can also supply grades like WTI Mid-land Challenges It is difficult to get oil as cheap as Russia in these options Apart from this, there will also be problems of long distance freight and logistics Most importantly, Indian refineries are optimized to process Russian oil and a sudden change can reduce the production of diesel and aviation fuel.
Diplomatic initiatives of India’s foreign policy
India has taken active diplomatic steps to face this challenge Russian visits Soon after Trump imposed tariffs, India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Foreign Minister S Jaishankar visited Russia. The purpose of this visit was to strengthen India-Russia relations amid pressure from Trump Talks with America India has talked about continuous talks with the US but at the same time it has also made it clear that it.
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